七宝德怀特秋招可能考的全球疫情影响 还没给娃科普过吗

优质国际学校的招生考试都有紧跟实事的特点，因此可以预见明年七宝德怀特秋招很可能考到全球疫情影响相关题目。今天就给大家分享一篇七宝德怀特经济导师Glenn Hutcheson的“疫情对于全球经济的影响”的分析，快给娃科普起来吧，对于其他国际学校的秋招和春招也都很有参考作用。

七宝德怀特国际学校介绍

上海七宝德怀特高级中学，是由上海市七宝中学和美国纽约市德怀特学校合作举办，上海市教育委员会批准设立，中国教育部备案的上海第一所独立设置的中外合作国际学校。

学校在课程方面留了中国的核心课程（语文、历史、地理、政治）和优势课程（数学），汲取德怀特学校实施 IB 课程的丰富经验和校本特色，于 10 年级开设 IBDP 预备课程，11-12 年级开设 IBDP 课程。

COVID19冠状病毒对中国及全球的经济影响

The Economic Impact on China (and beyond) of COVID19 (Coronavirus) 

经济是很复杂的东西，有许多相互关联、相互依存的变量。
中国的经济就更复杂了，它的GDP总量是世界第二，紧追第一名的美国。
告诉大家一个有趣的事实：按照相对增长速率和一定的测量方式，中国的经济总量将于2030-2050年之间赶超美国。
An economy is an incredibly complex thing. Many moving parts, all related and interdependent on each other. The Chinese economy is no exception and is even more complex since China’s economy (measured by GDP) is the second largest in the world next to the USA (and closing fast). Fun fact: depending on relative growth rates and how you measure it, the size of China’s economy could overtake the USA anywhere between 2030 to 2050.  

在一个经济体中，有大量的商品和服务被制造和交易，我把这些商品和服务统称为“东西”。
为了方便大家理解，我将简单分成几个部分来解释：买东西、造东西。
哦对了，前面提到的GDP是一年内制造的所有东西的价值。
那么，在被经济里纠结缠绕的各种变量搅乱思维之前，让我们先来看看冠状病毒对“买东西”和“造东西”的影响。
There are a huge amount of goods and services being made and bought in an economy. All these goods and services I will give a name – I will call them all stuff. To keep things simple, I will break an economy into a very simple couple of parts: People Buy Stuff, and People Make Stuff. Oh, and the acronym GDP mentioned above? It is the value of all the stuff made in a year. So, to look at the impact without getting too twisted in interdependent knots, let’s look at those two things for now. 

买东西

People Buy ‘Stuff’ 

新冠病毒的疫情很明显导致买东西的人（比如：消费者）和买的东西都变少了。
随着停工和封城，人们必然会减少购物消费。
The effect of COVID19 has clearly meant less people (i.e. consumers) are buying less stuff. With restrictions on businesses opening and people moving around cities this clearly means people are buying less stuff. 
比如，星巴克关闭了在中国的4300家门店；迪士尼关闭了在上海和香港的两个迪士尼乐园；
中国是全球第二大电影市场，然而所有的影院，为防止发生公共场所大规模人口聚集，也都关门了。
Here are some examples. Starbucks has closed more than half its 4,300 stores in China. Disney has closed both the Shanghai Disney park (and the Hong Kong park as well). China is the second largest motion picture market in the world, and all the theaters have been closed because they don’t want people in large public gatherings.  
旅游业也深受打击。
据估算，旅游业为中国贡献了11%的GDP。考虑到中国每年大约有1.4亿入境旅游，50亿国内旅行。
病毒暴发后，春运被严重影响，全世界的航班也停飞中国。
而且，中国游客也是海外旅游业的大客户，这些国家的旅游业同样遭受波及。
举个例子，预计3月底前有40万中国游客取消了前往日本的行程。
Tourism is clearly affected and tourism, according to one estimate, contributes 11% of China’s GDP. While China’s inbound tourism is around 140 million inbound trips, there are over 5 billion domestic trips. The Chinese New Year ‘migration’ was clearly hampered by the outbreak of the virus and worldwide airlines are no longer flying to China. As a side note – Chinese nationals are great tourists to other countries and those countries will feel the effect as well. To give one example, it is estimated some 400,000 Chinese tourists are forecast to cancel trips to Japan by the end of March. 
此外，大大小小的公司都停业了，消费势必减少，人们的工作量和收入也都随之减少。
收入减少意味着消费进一步减少，于是恶性循环，经济急转而下。
In addition, many other businesses, small and large, have shut their doors. So, people are buying less stuff. And of course, if people are buying less stuff then people are not working as much and earning less income. This means that the people earning less income can buy less stuff as well. A downward spiral begins.  
结论：新冠病毒使人们“买东西”的数量急剧下降。
Summary: COVID19 means a large decrease in people buying stuff. 

造东西

People Make stuff 

 “等一下！”我听到你在疑惑，“你已经提到了消费者减少买东西导致造东西也减少了”。
诚然，我是提过了，但是那些东西只是制造给消费者的，生产商还会制造其它东西。
这些不会被消费的东西叫做供应链，而它正在被病毒严重扰乱。
“Hang on” I hear you think, “You already mentioned less stuff being made above because consumers are buying less stuff.” Indeed, I have, however that was the type of stuff that is made for consumers. Producers make stuff that is not consumed. China makes a lot of stuff that is used to make a lot of other stuff. It is called the supply chain and it is being severely disrupted by the virus.  
我们拿车举个例子，一辆车由3万个零部件构成，你猜对了，其中很多都是中国制造，而这其中又有很多是在武汉制造——新冠病毒的暴发原点。
随着生产工厂因疫情被叫停，全世界的汽车制造业都受到了影响。
菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车公司宣布其于塞尔维亚的一家汽车工厂暂时停产，就是因为缺少中国生产的零部件。
同病相怜的还有现代和起亚，他们从2月初就停产了。
To use one example, let’s look at cars. A car can have up to 30,000 separate parts and yes, you guessed it, LOTS of those are made in China and LOTS of those parts made in China are made in Wuhan – ground zero of the COVID19 outbreak. With parts production being halted or restricted in China due to the virus, this means car production around the world is being affected. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said recently it is temporarily halting production at a car factory in Serbia because it can’t get parts from China. Other examples include Hyundai and Kia, who halted production in early February due to lack of parts available from China.  
还有一个供应链断裂的例子是无处不在的苹果手机。
据悉，一款价廉物美的iPhone新品原计划在三月面世，二月本应该是大规模生产制造的重要时期，然而这次苹果公司无法按期发布了。
全世界的供应链都被打乱了，这只能导致制造东西的数量减少。
Another example of supply chain disruption is the ubiquitous iPhone. The launch date of a new iPhone is planned months in advance and a new ‘low cost’ iPhone is rumoured to be released in March. February therefore would have been a huge month in the production of these phones and the word is these phones will not meet this expected launch date. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted and that can only mean less stuff being made.  
结论：新冠病毒大大降低了制造其他东西所需要制造的东西，因此，人们制造的东西更少了。
Summary: COVID19 means a large decrease in people making stuff that is used to make other stuff which means people are making less other stuff. 

中国和世界

China and World Stuff 

我可以给你中国和世界GDP受冠状病毒影响的数据，但是我不打算这样做。
这些预测都是“预言家”——经济学家们做出的，有时他们能猜对。
然而，直到病毒的影响最终被统计出来之前，这些猜测都只不过是水晶预言球上的数据分析表格罢了，因此它们并不适用于普通人。
病毒对你产生了什么影响呢？
这个很容易测量，只需回答以下问题：“我得到的东西少了多少？”
I could give you figures about the expected effect of the virus on China and World GDP but I’m not going to. These predictions are made by fortune tellers called ‘Economists’ and are sometimes even right. However, until the effects of the virus are counted after the fact, these guesses are just crystal ball gazing (if your crystal ball also had a spreadsheet and sophisticated data analysis) and are therefore not useful to the average person. How will the virus affect you? That’s easy to measure. Just answer this question; “How much less stuff am I getting?”  

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